allowUkraine to begin
the implementation of
its own liberalization
strategy on the account
of creation of bilateral
and regional alliances
•
WTOmembership as
essential requirement for
beginning of negotiations
on free trade zonewith
the EU...
•
... and for development
of integration processes
within the United
Economic Space (UES)
•
In the industrial sphere,
main dividends will
be received by ferrous
metallurgy enterprises
•
Banking and consumer
sectors will receive
additional impulses
Consequences of
financial liberalization
for the economy
•
According to the
estimates of theWorld
Bank, liberalization in the
field of financial services
for developingmarkets
may yield the dividends
that exceed the profit
from commodity trade by
4 times
•
Onmicro level:
development of new
products, improvement of
corporatemanagement
•
Intensification
of merging and
agglomeration processes
•
Increase of direct
foreign investments into
financial sector
•
Increase of competition,
decrease of monopolies
and increase of consumer
redundancy
•
Intensification of
consumer crediting and
lending to small and
medium businesses
International experience
of liberalization of the
banking sector
•
Successful experience
of liberalization: Brazil,
Chile, Poland, Ireland,
Spain, Ireland, Portugal
•
Liberalization helps
stabilize capital flows
(Dages et al., 2000)
•
Turkey – liberalization
in the 90s lead to
the improvement of
evaluation of risks
quality andmarketing
system, inflow of new
technologies (electronic
banking transactions,
increase of the number of
credit cards)
(Denizer, 1999)
•
Foreign economic
liberalization sets the
internal reformation of
the banking sector
•
The necessity
for strengthening
of institutions and
prudential norms –
liberalizationmay lead to
the loss of key accounts
by the national banks,
whichmay result inmore
risky credit policy
Potential risks for real
sector enterprises
•
Intensification of
competition, also
from giants of foreign
business...
•
...aggravated by low
capital level of Ukrainian
enterprises
•
Limitations on
stimulation of
development of
enterprises and export on
the account of subsidies
•
Deterioration of trade
balance in short-term
perspective
•
Trade disputes riskmay
increase
g.
Macroeconomic forecast
•
GDP continues to grow
at a high rate in 2007...
•
...at the same time,
foreign trade deficit and
budget sphere remain
among the potential risk
sources
e)Financial
resultof activitiesof enterprisesandorganizations
Source:
StateStatisticsCommitteeofUkraine
2003 2004 2005 2006
20,312.1 42,932 57,619.3 70,236.8
59 66.3 66.7 69.1
41 33.7 33.3 30.9
Financial resultsoforganizations,
MillionUAH
Profitableenterprises,%of theoverall
numberofenterprises
Unprofitableenterprises,%of theoverall
numberofenterprises
f)DeutscheUFG
InflowofDFI, billiondollars
Source:
NBU
1
6
8
g)Main
macroeconomic indicatorsand forecastsofDeutscheUFG
Source:
official statistics,DeutscheUFG
GDP,billiondollars
GDP increase,actual,%
Increaseofhousehold
consumption,%
Grossaccumulationof
fixedcapital, change
over theyear,%
Export,billiondollars
Import,billiondollars
NBU reserves,billion
dollars
Current transactions,
%GDP
Budgetproficit/deficit,
%GDP
Consumerprices index,
changeover theyear
Hryvnia/dollar.
Endof theperiod
Hryvnia/dollar, real,
changeover theyear
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
50.1 64.9 83.1 106.5 122.4 140.1
9.6% 12.1% 2.6% 7.1% 6.4% 6.2%
10.0% 13.1% 16.6% 14.4% 12.9% 10.4%
24.3% 5.5% 7.1% 16.8% 11.4% 7.8%
23.7 32.7 34.3 38.4 42.6 46.0
23.2 29.0 36.1 45.0 51.6 58.0
5.1 9.5 19.4 22.3 26.0 26.9
5.8% 10.6% 3.1% -1.5% -1.3% -2.2%
-0.2% -3.2% -1.8% -0.7% -2.5% -2.0%
8.2% 12.3% 10.3% 11.6% 9.6% 8.6%
5.3 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
6.3% 9.3% 12.1% 8.9% 7.2% 6.1%
BUSINESS EMIRATES
82
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